6세아동의 1년후 우식경험영구치면수 증가여부 예측모형개발에 관한 연구
A STUDY ON THE MODELS PREDICTING 6-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN´S DMFS INCREMENT IN ONE YEAR
진보형, 차창선, 김영재, 김형종,
소속 상세정보
진보형 ( ) - 서울대학교 치과대학 예방치학교실
차창선 ( ) - 서울대학교 치과대학 예방치학교실
김영재 ( ) - 서울대학교 치과대학 예방치학교실
김형종 ( ) - 서울대학교 치과대학 예방치학교실
KMID : 0355419920160020429
Abstract
In spite of various dental health services, the prevalence of dental caries has been increased in Korea.
To improve the dental health status effectively, it is necessary to predict children at high risk to caries early in order that preventive measures might be undertaken.
The aim of this study was to develop the models predicting 6-yr-old children´s DMFS increment in one year. For this purpose, one thousand first-grade elementary school children were selected for longitudinal study. The selected subjects were surveyed by trained examiner in 1991 and reexamined in 1992, Eleven variables for prediction, such as sex, prior DMFS, water fluoridation, frequency of snack intake, habits of snack intake, effect of dietary sucrose levels, frequency of tooth brushing, relation of brothers, frequency of dental visits, employment of mother, salivary concentration of lactobacilli, and colony count number of streptococcus mutans in 0.1% peptone garggling solution, were included in this study,
The DMFS increment was used as a respondent variable which was categorized high/low risk. High risk to dental caries was defined that more than one DMFS increments. And low risk to dental caries was defined that no DMFS increment. One
clinical, two microbiological, three dietary and six sociodemographic predictors were used as predictor variables.
Dental caries predicton models for all surfaces, pits & fissures and smooth surfaces were developed using linear discriminant analysis and discussed the
models. The results obtained were as follows :
1. At the all surfaces, eight variables were used to define prediction model. The model produced a sensitivity of 64.8%, a specificity of 73.6% and a predictive values of 71.9% for 1-yr DMFS increment prediction in 6-yr-old children.
2. At the pits & fissures, nine variables were used to define prediction model. The model produced a sensitivity of 66.7%, a specificity of 72.9% and a predictive values of 71.7% for 1-yr DMFS increment prediction in 6-yr-old children.
3. At the smooth surfaces, five variables were used to define prediction model. The model produced a sensitivity of 54.5%, a specificity of 94.6% and a predictive values of 93.9% for 1-yr DMFS increment prediction in 6-yr-old children.
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